Step 1: Facts missing from the state
Jev answers from the state you send and nothing else. It has no clock, no database and no way to look anything up. A question whose answer depends on a fact outside the state still gets a probability back, and that probability looks just as official as a good one.
Checkout wants to ask "Has this coupon expired?" with the coupon's code
and expiry date as the state. coupons.jsonl holds 40 coupons,
labelled against the lab's clock, TODAY = "2026-09-24".
The probe for this failure is a baseline. If Jev is not clearly more accurate than always guessing the most common answer, it has no usable signal on the question, however confident its numbers look.
Do this
Open probes.py.
1. Write coupon_state(coupon, today=None): {"code", "expires"},
plus "today" when it is given.
2. Write signal_report(p, y). Return:
accuracy: at a 0.5 threshold.majority: the accuracy of always guessing the more common label.auc: the ranking quality, from the helperauc(p, y).verdict:"beats_baseline"when accuracy is at least 10 points above majority, else"no_signal".
Round the numbers to 3 places.
3. Run. Without today, every coupon gets roughly 0.3 to 0.5, and
accuracy equals the majority baseline. The AUC is around 0.75: Jev
leans slightly toward "expired" for older dates, but no probability
crosses 0.5, so as a yes/no answer it is useless. Add "today" to the
state and it is right on every coupon, with probabilities near 0 and 1.
Starter file: coupons.jsonl
{"id": 1, "code": "SAVE10", "expires": "2025-08-20", "expired": true}
{"id": 2, "code": "SAVE11", "expires": "2026-03-08", "expired": true}
{"id": 3, "code": "SAVE12", "expires": "2026-05-27", "expired": true}
{"id": 4, "code": "SAVE13", "expires": "2026-07-26", "expired": true}
{"id": 5, "code": "SAVE14", "expires": "2026-08-25", "expired": true}
{"id": 6, "code": "SAVE15", "expires": "2026-09-10", "expired": true}
{"id": 7, "code": "SAVE16", "expires": "2026-09-17", "expired": true}
{"id": 8, "code": "SAVE17", "expires": "2026-09-21", "expired": true}
{"id": 9, "code": "SAVE18", "expires": "2026-09-23", "expired": true}
{"id": 10, "code": "SAVE19", "expires": "2026-09-25", "expired": false}
{"id": 11, "code": "SAVE20", "expires": "2026-09-26", "expired": false}
{"id": 12, "code": "SAVE21", "expires": "2026-09-29", "expired": false}
{"id": 13, "code": "SAVE22", "expires": "2026-10-03", "expired": false}
{"id": 14, "code": "SAVE23", "expires": "2026-10-14", "expired": false}
{"id": 15, "code": "SAVE24", "expires": "2026-11-08", "expired": false}
{"id": 16, "code": "SAVE25", "expires": "2026-12-23", "expired": false}
{"id": 17, "code": "SAVE26", "expires": "2027-02-21", "expired": false}
{"id": 18, "code": "SAVE27", "expires": "2027-07-21", "expired": false}
{"id": 19, "code": "SAVE28", "expires": "2026-01-17", "expired": true}
{"id": 20, "code": "SAVE29", "expires": "2026-06-26", "expired": true}
{"id": 21, "code": "SAVE30", "expires": "2026-08-10", "expired": true}
{"id": 22, "code": "SAVE31", "expires": "2026-09-14", "expired": true}
{"id": 23, "code": "SAVE32", "expires": "2026-09-27", "expired": false}
{"id": 24, "code": "SAVE33", "expires": "2026-10-06", "expired": false}
{"id": 25, "code": "SAVE34", "expires": "2026-10-24", "expired": false}
{"id": 26, "code": "SAVE35", "expires": "2026-11-23", "expired": false}
{"id": 27, "code": "SAVE36", "expires": "2027-04-12", "expired": false}
{"id": 28, "code": "SAVE37", "expires": "2027-09-24", "expired": false}
{"id": 29, "code": "SAVE38", "expires": "2026-09-19", "expired": true}
{"id": 30, "code": "SAVE39", "expires": "2026-10-01", "expired": false}
{"id": 31, "code": "SAVE40", "expires": "2026-09-22", "expired": true}
{"id": 32, "code": "SAVE41", "expires": "2026-09-28", "expired": false}
{"id": 33, "code": "SAVE42", "expires": "2026-03-28", "expired": true}
{"id": 34, "code": "SAVE43", "expires": "2027-01-22", "expired": false}
{"id": 35, "code": "SAVE44", "expires": "2026-09-03", "expired": true}
{"id": 36, "code": "SAVE45", "expires": "2026-10-09", "expired": false}
{"id": 37, "code": "SAVE46", "expires": "2025-10-29", "expired": true}
{"id": 38, "code": "SAVE47", "expires": "2027-05-22", "expired": false}
{"id": 39, "code": "SAVE48", "expires": "2026-09-16", "expired": true}
{"id": 40, "code": "SAVE49", "expires": "2026-10-04", "expired": false}